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Predictions for a Trump Presidency



 

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Supporters of Donald J. Trump waiting to see him at a campaign event in Tampa, Fla., on Nov. 5.

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Damon Winter/The New York Times

Here’s something we did not predict a year ago: that Russia would hack the Democratic National Committee to undermine faith in the 2016 election and that the winner of that race, President-elect Donald J. Trump, would shrug off the entire episode by telling the country to “move on” as he stood next to Don King, a boxing promoter and convicted felon.

Nope. We did not see that coming. Because predictions are hard — even hazardous. But as the final days of the year tick down, The Run-Up wants to look ahead, carefully, to 2017, when a new White House, a new Congress and a new political reality will take over in Washington.

So we asked four seasoned Times reporters — Amy Chozick, Jim Rutenberg, Peter Baker and Peter Goodman — to offer a guide to the coming year.

I asked them four questions.

1. Who from the Democratic Party will emerge as the loudest voice of opposition to Mr. Trump in 2017?

2. What kind of a diplomat will Mr. Trump be?

3. Will the new administration spark a trade war?

4. And, finally, how can the news media — including The Times — hold Mr. Trump accountable without becoming his adversary?

Mr. Rutenberg is not so sure the media can.

“That’s going to be really hard,” he said. “The problem is that when Mr. Trump leans into a fact that isn’t true, or uses to his advantage some bad reporting himself, you have to fact-check it and it automatically ends up looking like you’re picking a fight, like you’re the opposition, when you’re just doing your job.” The worry, he said, is that Mr. Trump will employ a tactic as president that he used throughout the campaign, of punishing journalists whose work he dislikes.

“I can’t see how it doesn’t end up that way. I’d love to be wrong,” Mr. Rutenberg said. “I’d love to go back and listen to this a year from now and say I was wrong. But the way the incoming president has always behaved is barring reporters, going after them in the most personal terms, which then brings the Twitter mob down upon them and, in worst-case scenarios, threats. I don’t see how he changes that technique. He’s still embracing it in this interim period. And if that happens, it’s uncharted territory.”

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3. Subscribe. Once on the series page, click on the word “subscribe” to have new episodes sent to your phone free.

4. Or just sample. If you would rather listen to an episode or two before deciding to subscribe, click on the episode title from the list on the series page. If you have an internet connection, you’ll be able to stream the episode.

H/T nytimes.com

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